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What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Regardless, if there isn’t evidence of containment of the virus anytime soon, demand for the company’s products will remain weak in the near to medium term, and if the company is not able to control expenses, we believe the stock will see its P/E multiple decline from the current level of 32.4x to around 29x, which combined with a reduction in revenues and margins could result in the stock price shrinking to as low as $21, a downside of around 15% from the current price of $25. Despite a lower effective tax rate (3% in 2020 vs 16.7% in 2019), EPS came in at $0.78, down from $1.01 in Q4 2019. Further, the company was unable to control COGS and operating expenses, with operating income coming in at $353 million vs $442 million in Q4 2019. This is evident from Juniper’s Q4 2020 results, where revenue came in at $4.5 billion, same as that in Q4 2019. The global spread of Coronavirus and the resulting lockdowns have led to a surge in online activity, which should have driven up demand for networking products, such as routers, switches, and security products, but this has not been the case with Juniper Networks. So what’s the likely trigger and timing to this downside? The P/E multiple currently stands around the same level, but given Juniper Networks’ weak Q4 2021 results, there is possible downside risk for Juniper’s multiple. Juniper Networks’ P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio rose from 17.6x in 2017 to 31.6x in 2019, as the investor expectations surrounding networking product demand rose, implying a rise in demand and selling prices. This, combined with a roughly 6% drop in the outstanding share count, led to EPS dropping by 52%, from $1.62 to $0.78 over this period. Net income margins dropped from 12.2% to 5.8% over the same period, as a result of rising costs across all operating expense heads. Juniper stock’s rise since late 2018 came despite a 4% drop in revenues, from $4.65 billion in 2018 to $4.45 billion in 2020.
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